Tuesday, April 19, 2011

The New Economic Destination

A lot of Pundits attribute the good response of the U.S. economy to the monetary expansion (post bail out era) and the various fiscal stimulus . I do not agree with that conventional wisdom . In my humble opinion Mr Bernanke did the right thing but the good reaction of the industrialized economies is because of the extraordinary performance of emerging economies which increased the global aggregate demand for resources, products and services.

The last decade emerging markets economic policy favored the exporting sector , creating huge surpluses in the trade balance and huge current account surplus, and thus modifying the world financial landscape, now the so called poor countries are cash rich and finance the so called rich companies. I don’t like to forecast but the logic policy response from the emerging markets its now to support their consumers and look to endogenous growth, making their markets more independent (Brazil ‘s case). The before mentioned will revert the trend of trade imbalances in the world because at one point emerging countries will not like to continue financing the rich and on the other hand it is not sustainable.

The new economic destination is a picture were the rich are not that rich and the poor are less poor , with a lot of ups and downs but guiding to a new secular destination of global growth , higher inflation , no more cheap Asian labor and surging commodity prices….

Monday, April 18, 2011

U.S Fiscal Status …. Oh Myyyy …

The U.S. has accumulated huge deficits and somebody has to pay the bill, I do believe the first “payer” will be the long term U.S. government bonds, in other words I think that interest rates will rise.

I think in the following fashion: as the U.S has accumulated more than 14 Trillion of deficits (currently almost at par from the GDP) and as company that leverages more and more , the risk of default increases, therefore the rates should increase.

The Quantitative Easing 2 will end in June and I honestly think that demand for U.S. Debt (T-notes, T-bill, T-bons) will decrease . Today the U.S. outlook was changed from stable to negative, 5 years ago was unimaginable, now is a reality , we are living in a world were the poor saved the rich….. One for a change.

Unless the U.S. Budget shrinks (diminishing the role in the economy) debts will increase and the value of the dollar will continue eroding (as I stated 2 years ago in my dumping dollars article, being right so far). So if you are relying in the U.S. dollar I would be all in , maybe not in at all (in fixed income)

Disclosure : I currently hold short positions in U.S. Debt or synthetics of U.S. Debt

*this article or any of the previous or following ones does not constitutes any investment advice or suggestion.